Despite evidence that Trump’s claims of election fraud in the 2020 race were false, what factors contributed to his supporters’ consistent support over the years?
The research conducted by researchers Philip Moniz and William B. Swann involved analyzing why Trump’s supporters continued to support him despite his repeated dishonesties about the election and potentially criminal actions.
In addition, Trump’s allegations of voter fraud, which were widely noted, had far-reaching effects, such as the Capitol riot on January 6 and ongoing polarization within the United States. The study examined how identity fusion can sustain belief in misinformation and influence political views.
Moniz commented on the potential impact of Trump’s legal troubles on his voters’ support. He stated that voters’ enthusiasm for him may have been influenced by the fusion of Trump supporters, especially those who identify as Republican voters.
The researchers conducted three years of surveys using three-wave panels, including 130 Trump supporters recruited through Amazon’s Mechanical Turk platform.
They surveyed participants in the Ethnopolitical Electoral in November 2020, the presidential primary season in March 2021, and the National Stadium Poll. These surveys assessed how people feel about the merger of their identities with Trump, using statements like “I like Donald Trump emotionally” and “I helped create Donald Trump politically,” researchers say.
Others assessed whether their support for claims of election fraud is fraught with statements like “Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election,” but others assessed the likelihood of support for his policies, including his controversial measures like mass deportations and the elimination of civil service protections for federal employees.
The researchers observed “a strong, reciprocal effect” between identity merging and belief in election fraud claims: Participants who had “more deeply” merged with Trump before the 2020 election were more likely to adopt “confessional narratives” of voter fraud, and by expressing these claims, they “developed a [briefly] conditional relationship with Trump,” thus establishing a “trust loop” in which those most connected with him would “embrace his loyalty and accept the beliefs he espoused”.
The impact of this dynamic was widespread: Participants who believed that the election fraud claims were false were also more likely to underestimate the criminal charges against Trump, view them as politically motivated rather than legitimate, and who supported Trump’s policy agenda, including many of his proposals that have been widely criticized as undemocratic.
The study also suggests that belief in misinformation about the election boosted supporters’ tolerance of other pro-Trump narratives.
Moniz told PsyPost that those who remained loyal to Trump throughout his political struggles were those with higher self-actualization and who connected with him in the early stages of his presidency.
Trump’s ‘big lie’ that the election was rigged in 2020 had a significant impact; Trump’s supporters rallied to him and his cause over three years, forming a strong bond with him and expanding his policies, including deporting undocumented immigrants.
It is notable that according to the researchers, belief in claims of election fraud was a stronger predictor of political attitudes than factors such as opposition to Democrats or support for the January 6 insurrection.
Moniz observed that belief in Trump’s claims was an important factor in the minds of Trump supporters in the sample. He also noted that belief in Trump’s policies and victim narratives was the most powerful predictor.
The results indicate the effect of identity fusion on political attitudes and practices. Still, the research is subject to some restrictions.
The sample was limited in size, meaning that participants were not representative of all Trump supporters or the broader electorate. Additionally, the sample was predominantly white, with slightly higher levels of education than the Republican voter base.
The study raises doubts about the overall psychological makeup of the population. For example, if a person is convinced of one lie, what leads them to believe more lies? By understanding the “snowball effect”, researchers can learn about strategies to prevent the spread of lies and promote higher levels of objectivity among voters.
Moniz emphasized the importance of accepting the “big lie” as a way to make other rhetoric more credible.
A study titled “The Power of Trump’s Big Lie: Identity Merger, Internalization of Misinformation, and Support for Trump” was released on January 13, 2025.